Teabaggers in 2010? : Debunking the Political Wisdom

Image from The Daily Globe.
Will the right wing seize power?
Looking ahead to November

By Ted McLaughlin / The Rag Blog / May 7, 2010

[The Rag Blog doesn't post a lot about election predictions, but I think it is important that the right-wingers don't return to power in November. It is vital for the Democrats (with all their faults) to stay in the majority in both houses of Congress. -- Ted McLaughlin.]

The conventional wisdom among political pundits these days is that the Democrats will suffer a humiliating defeat in the November elections -- possibly even a bad enough defeat to cost them control of one or both houses of Congress. While the party out of power usually gains a few seats in an off-year election, I am still failing to see that the seats lost will be an abnormally large number, and the polls continue to support that view.

The latest poll is a Washington Post/ABC News Poll. The poll was conducted April 22nd through April 25th, and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Frankly, the poll shows the Democrats are not in nearly as bad a position as many pundits want people to believe. In fact, the numbers look pretty good for Democrats.

One interesting aspect of this poll does show that this has the capability to be a very volatile election. Consider the answers given when respondents were asked whether they would vote for their incumbent congressman or look around for an alternative:

Re-elect....................32%
Look around............57%
No opinion.................9%

But when one looks at other numbers in the poll, it can easily be seen that this volatility is not just in Democratically-held districts. The numbers actually favor Democrats, and those districts that are volatile could well be Republican districts being challenged by teabagger candidates. Here are how the numbers look when respondents were asked which party they would vote for if the election were held today:

Democrat....................48%
Republican..................43%
No opinion.....................6%

I think one reason many pundits are predicting a bad November for Democrats is the role of the teabagger movement. The reasoning is that the teabaggers are a broad-based movement made up of people from across the political spectrum, and when combined with Republicans they will outnumber Democrats. Fortunately that is just not true. The teabaggers are actually just an angry element of the Republican Party, and the poll numbers bear that out. Consider the answers to the following questions:

Which group best represents your own values?

Democrats....................48%
Republicans..................24%
Teabaggers....................14%

Which group is most concerned about needs of people like you?

Democrats....................49%
Republicans..................23%
Teabaggers....................17%

Which group best understands the economic problems people are having?

Democrats....................48%
Republicans..................22%
Teabaggers....................17%

As you can see, even when you add the teabaggers and the Republicans together they can only get 38-40% of the respondents. That doesn't sound like the makings of a humiliating defeat for Democrats to me. Those numbers look great for Democrats (about triple the margin of error). When considered in their proper perspective, as only being an angry part of the Republican Party, it really doesn't look like the teabaggers will have much of an effect on the coming election.

I still believe the most important issue in the coming election will be the economy. The above numbers show that people still trust Democrats with the economy more than Republicans by 48% to 39%. The Republicans still have a long way to go in convincing voters they can handle the economy better than Democrats, and their recent opposition to reforming Wall Street is not going to help them with that. Just consider the answer to the following question:

Do you support or oppose stricter federal regulations on the way Wall Street firms conduct their business?

Support....................63%
Oppose.....................29%
No opinion.................8%

The main way Republicans are trying to make themselves look better on the economy is their repeated attempts to blame President Obama for the continuing recession and the country's deficit, but even that effort is failing to gain any traction. The poll asked respondents who they blamed for the current state of the economy and the current deficit. Here's how they answered:

Who's more responsible for the current state of the economy?

Barack Obama....................25%
George W. Bush.................59%

Who's more responsible for the current federal budget deficit?

Barack Obama....................22%
George W. Bush.................60%

Right-wing organizations and corporations have sunk a lot of money into advertisements, lobbyists and funding for teabagger protests. The teabaggers have been loud and obnoxious. And the Republicans have told a multitude of lies. But it doesn't look like it's done much good so far. They still haven't convinced a majority of the country that Republicans could rule better than the Democrats.

Of course, the real key to how the election will go in November is turnout -- especially Democratic turnout. The Republicans are angry and desperate, and they will go to the polls. If the Democrats can get their people to the polls they will do well (as the numbers show). If they don't then they will not do well. It's as simple as that.

There's still six months to go before the election (and something unexpected could still happen). But the question right now is whether the Democrats can get their voters energized in the remaining time. The outcome of the election hangs on that.

[Rag Blog contributor Ted McLaughlin also posts at jobsanger.]

The Rag Blog