Showing posts with label Sherman DeBrosse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sherman DeBrosse. Show all posts

25 July 2012

Don Swift : Paranoid Politics and the Legitimacy Crisis

Graphic from Framing the Dialogue. Inset images below from NeoRepublica and Pushed to the Left.

Paranoid politics:
How the legitimacy crisis helps the Republicans
The growing lack of confidence in government and democracy occurred most with white, blue-collar people. The extent to which this was directly connected to racial antipathy is difficult to sort out.
By Don Swift / The Rag Blog / July 25, 2012

[See earlier articles in this series.]

The Paranoid Style

Throughout American history, there have been numerous highly emotional and somewhat irrational movements that were marked by paranoia, rage, and acceptance of conspiracy theories. They include the McCarthyites of the 1950s, the anti-Catholic “Know-Nothings” of the 1850s, the White Citizens Councils, the anti-Masonic and anti-Illuminati movements, and the populists of the 1890s. The angry farmers in the latter were not right-wingers.

The late Richard Hofstadter, an expert on status politics and the populists, lumped them together under the heading of the “paranoid style in American politics.” They all have in common the fear that they are about to lose or have lost something important, including social status.

He found that these people have a way of projecting their own undesirable traits onto the people they hate. Frequently, there is a hang-up with illicit sex. They are given to paranoid theories and fantasies, and there are “heroic strivings for evidence to prove… the unbelievable.”

Movements that exhibit the paranoid style generate a great deal of emotional energy and commitment among followers, and the Republicans have been the beneficiaries of this sort of zeal and commitment since Richard Milhouse Nixon unveiled his “Southern Strategy.”

To a degree, that strategy was anticipated by Barry Goldwater's 1961 Atlanta speech in which he said, “We're not going to get the Negro vote as a block in 1964 or 1968; [we ought] to go hunting where the ducks are.” Both strategies were designed to mine Southern racial antipathies for votes.


Populism -- with an emphasis on right-wing populism

Right-wing populism was an even more successful ploy for using hot button issues and cultural differences to recruit voters. Of course, this strategy sometimes overlapped with the Southern Strategy.

The New Right, which includes the Religious Right, is an example of right-wing populism, and it too clearly is an example of the paranoid style. It has added a great deal of heat to the political environment and could well have paved the way for more extreme manifestations of the paranoid style.

The Religious Right draws upon evangelical and conservative Protestants and traditionalist Roman Catholics, and the religious element has allowed them to claim for themselves a special legitimacy that their opponents supposedly lack. The religious dimension has also helped push the Republican Party toward fanaticism.

Retiring Democratic Congressman Gary Ackerman learned from a Republican friend that Republicans in their caucus pray, hold hands, and call upon God to work against measures proposed by their opponents. There is nothing wrong with praying, but it might be more helpful if they preyed for wisdom and open hearts.

Modern day right-wing populism appeals to people who feel dispossessed; they think some sinister elite looks down upon them and has betrayed them. Contemporary right-wing populism appeals to social groups who believe they are losing status and control of the national culture.

Hofstadter's basic definition of populism still holds, but today's scholars have rehabilitated the Populist Party of old, choosing to overlook their xenophobia, anti-Semitism, and weakness for conspiracy theories.

His probing of what he called the “reactionary” far right of Joseph McCarthy has been faulted because it could distort people's understanding of conservatism. His point was that the reactionary far right is not conservative by definition or tradition.

For him, the McCarthyites and John Birch Society were pseudo-conservatives. He noted that the McCarthyites called themselves “conservatives” and usually employed the rhetoric of conservatism. The problem was that they evinced “signs of a serious and restless dissatisfaction with American life, traditions, and institutions." He called them “pseudo-conservatives.”

Hofstadter, Daniel Bell, and Seymour Martin Lipset clearly indicated that McCarthy, who used some populist rhetoric, was something other than a populist, and this is also true of today'a Tea Party movement.

McCarthyism and the Tea Party are distorted manifestations of extreme nationalism. The identity crisis noted by Huntington helped fuel the movement. It points in the direction of a nationalistic movement rather than populism.

The second development that points to something other than populism is a growing legitimacy, wherein people question the value of our government. It too laid the groundwork for the Tea Party and is known for the kind of anti-government sentiment that marks the Tea Party.


Legitimacy crisis

Political scientist Stanley B. Greenberg relates today's strong anti-government sentiment to a legitimacy crisis in which more and more people question whether democratic government can work. Scholars have been tracking a legitimacy crisis for decades, and it has recently grown to very substantial proportions as only a quarter of citizens have a positive view of government.

The growing legitimacy crisis made it possible for political fundamentalism in the form of the Tea Party to become a great political force almost overnight. The legitimacy crisis reflects high levels of disenchantment and feelings of betrayal. The term “legitimacy crisis” strictly can mean that a major breaking point has arrived and or that many perceive that the future existence of a healthy state is threatened.

The crisis should be acute rather than chronic, and one would expect it to come in response to dramatic adverse changes. However, scholars have decided not to use the term in its strictest sense because a legitimacy crisis can be relative and exist for some people and not others. If people perceive that a legitimacy crisis exists, then it exists for them.

Pollsters like Daniel Yankovich have been tracking ebbing confidence in our institutions since the last half of the 1960s, and it has only recently gathered critical mass. Declining confidence led to dissatisfaction and alienation. President Jimmy Carter's pollster, Pat Caudell, thought the problem was so great that he persuaded the president to give an ill-advised television speech on the subject in 1979.

Carter was careful in the way he broached his topic, and he never used the word “malaise” but an effective opposition information strategy made that word the keep to the speech and Carter's tone was even switched from cheerleading and optimism to that of gloom and doom. The problem after that was unaddressed by public officials.

By 1980, there were many scholarly references to a legitimacy problem. President Ronald Reagan, whose job should have been to help our political system work, perhaps unwittingly contributed to greater skepticism about its value. Today, some of these anti-government themes are standard Republican talking points, and some people who were once in the extremist fringe groups are now recognized Republican leaders.

Reagan taught people to believe that government helped folks conservatives thought irresponsible, not hard-working dutiful people like themselves. In 2011, only 25% of the American people expressed confidence in the future of the American system of government.


Anti-government rhetoric

Much of the anti-government rhetoric now spouted by the Tea Party members can be traced to the various fringe movements of the recent past -- the militias, the Constitutionalists, the Alaska Independence Party, the Christian Identity movement, the West Virginia Mountaineer Militia, and others.

All these communities of resistance and defiance of change have authoritarian and nativist characteristics. The two go hand in hand. Above all, they react against change. They see the government as an agent of unwanted change and they set out to disrupt and replace it. 

They are serious about destroying government as it is and are attracted by the anti-government tactics of Republican politicians who claim to hate government but really want to control it.

Retired Republican Congressional aide Mike Lofgren wrote that several years ago a superior explained to him that it was Republican strategy to obstruct and disrupt government. By damaging the reputation of government, the Republican Party will benefit at the polls because it is programmatically against government.

A few months ago, he was told that the party would create an artificial debt limit crisis for the same reason, to win votes by making government look bad.

Though academicians and pollsters have been tracking declining confidence in our system for a long time, it was only in 1974 that ABC began asking about confidence in the future of democracy and liberalism. People identified the Democrats and liberalism with government, so distrust of government hurt the Democrats and made it easier for Republicans to make liberalism a dirty word.

Most Democrats had little idea that any of this was going on, and they suffered electoral disasters in 1972 and 1984 in part because many voters thought they were more concerned about helping those not working than those who were.

Compared to today, the situation in 1980 now does not appear very serious and the scholars who addressed it look like alarmists. British and European social scientists seem to think legitimacy problems grow out of the conditions of late capitalism that produce status stress and challenging economic conditions for middle class people.

That explanation is a bit difficult to apply to the United States where most people are impatient with talk about growing economic inequality. Some tie the growing lack of confidence to increasing social and cultural fragmentation. There is less cohesiveness, which in the past generated civility and sympathy across various cultural and social boundaries.

An essential characteristic of this growing sentiment was the idea that our political system was becoming increasingly illegitimate because it did not respond to what voters wanted. It appeared that government had become a powerful entity that was somehow removed from the voters who were supposed to control it.


Blaming the Democrats

This building sentiment doubtless helped pave the way for the Tea Party movement. The Greenberg study found that people who doubted the legitimacy of government associated the Democrats with big government and blamed the Democrats for the nation's problems. A majority of people interviewed, who reflected a deep legitimacy crisis, agreed with Democratic positions on the issues but believed the party simply could not deliver on its promises.

They saw the venality of many progressive leaders, who valued contributions, perks, and reelection over serving the middle class. They came to think that representative government no longer worked and they gave up on the Democrats.

After the bailout of Wall Street, many of them moved to the right and into the Tea Party. This is probably when a full-blown legitimacy crisis arrived, because so many people had suspected for so long that government was some sort of evil, alien force.

Dismay with Wall Street over the financial collapse was brief. A retired University of North Carolina history professor accompanied Tea Party people on a bus trip to the Capitol and had a chance to explore their thought. He found that Tea Party folks blamed everything wrong, including the financial crisis, on government. They saw Washington in the same way many viewed Moscow in the Cold War era. Perhaps the Cold War conditioned many to see all problems coming from a single evil source.

Somehow, they had been persuaded not to blame the bankers. It was government regulations. Distrust of government had been growing for so long among these people that they readily accepted the view that government caused the financial crash.8

Greenberg did not think they would take a favorable view of the Democrats until that party moved to get big money out of politics and prove they put the middle class over Wall Street and big business. So long as national politics remains dysfunctional and the economy is weak, these people will not back Democrats, and their distrust of government will continue to help the Republicans.

They see Democrats as wanting to grow a government that does not work. These people are weary and impatient and not likely to see through the Republican tactic of using across the board obstructionism to prevent passage of economic stimulus legislation. They are still likely to blame the Democrats for not rescuing the economy overnight.


Blaming the poor

Focus group research shows that many of the most disaffected citizens lump together the poor, Wall Street, and big business among the irresponsible elements that Ronald Reagan warned about.

As these people on the Right focused more on what they thought was wrong, they exaggerated how dire the situation was. They equated programs to assist the poor with government's illegitimacy. When William Jefferson Clinton became president, a legitimacy crisis occurred for them in an ideological and cultural sense, and they set out to remove Clinton from office.

It is not difficult to see how the crisis mentality mounted for people on the Right. What was occurring was that the Republican Party was becoming the home for people deeply affected by the legitimacy crisis and also for people on the Religious Right who were disturbed that they had lost control of American culture.

In time, beginning in the Reagan years, many came to see the Republican party as their primary identity group. Increasingly they would come to assess what was fact and “true” according to this primary identity and what the admired leaders of their political identity group said and thought. It was quite different from the 19th century, when ethnic and religious identities usually came first.

An interesting phenomenon appeared among gay Republicans who were members of the Abraham Lincoln Society. With time, the party became more and more anti-gay and homophobic, but the Abraham Lincoln people continued to be active Republicans, placing their primary identity over that of being gay.

Thinking about poverty seems to have shifted over 50 years and has contributed to the mounting legitimacy crisis. When Michael Harrington published The Other America: Poverty in the United States, many shared his desire to deal with the problem. He wrote about a “culture of poverty,” which was the product of poverty and included emphasis on short-term gratification, low expectations, and a variety of social pathologies.

Lyndon Johnson made headway in addressing the problem, but too many Americans bought Charles Murray's claim that Johnson's War on Poverty had been a failure. Even worse, Murray successfully sold the idea that the poor are trapped by an unhealthy culture, which then produces poverty. Murray said welfare programs only make things worse, abetting more dependency.

In other words, Murray managed to turn Harrington's careful findings upside down. As a result, many saw the poor as responsible for their own problems. Murray's research was not all that strong or convincing but people were increasingly receptive to it in a harsher America where people were less inclined to respond positively to their better instincts.


Republicans and victimhood

For people who increasingly saw government as illegitimate, Barack Obama's Affordable Health Care Act set off two major alarms. They saw government getting larger and more powerful, and they saw billions being spent to help poor people and the likelihood that taxes would eventually be increased to cover the costs. People who distrusted government and doubted its legitimacy simply went into orbit.

Republicans came to see themselves as the honest taxpayers who were victims of a State that did too much for the poor. By 2012, this concept of victimhood was expanded to seeing taxpayers as victims of greedy public employee unions.

Beginning in 2010, some states like Minnesota and Wisconsin stripped public employees of the right of collective bargaining. Other states followed, and some states slashed pension benefits for new public employees. This was followed by the beginning of efforts to slash pensions of public employees who were already retired.

Increasingly Republicans, who had long defended the contract clause rights of corporations, were saying that retired public employees had no contractual rights because their pensions seemed overly-generous.

The growing lack of confidence in government and democracy occurred most with white, blue-collar people. The extent to which this was directly connected to racial antipathy is difficult to sort out.

When Barack Obama led the Democratic ticket in 2008, it lost among white working class voters by 18 points. Two years later, when the Great Recession had not yet abated, the Democrats lost among these people by 30%. 

The Gallup organization found that the number of Americans who called themselves conservative grew from 37% in 2007 to 41% in 2011, suggesting that the Great Recession has helped theRepublicans.12

Ours is not a direct democracy; it is a representative democracy. Most voters pay little attention to the details of politics. When things are not going well, the "throw the bums out" mechanism kicks in. This mechanism can be gamed and can be used in combination with a legitimacy crisis.

Newt Gingrich took a decade to end Democratic rule in the House by creating havoc in the chamber and convincing voters that the institution had lost legitimacy, and in 1994 the voters pitched the bums out. After the death of Ted Kennedy, Barack Obama lost the ability to pass recovery measures in the Congress. Republicans stonewalled him and slowed recovery.

Frustrated that he had not worked an economic miracle, the voters punished the Democrats in 2010, and the voters gave the Republicans a huge victory in the House and six more seats in the Senate. The same strategy is at work in 2012, and the Republicans are banking on the voters not being very attentive to detail.

Romney, like Tom Dewey in 1948, is being vague and misleading. Things were very unsettled in 1948, and people blamed Truman. This time, we have lingering unemployment, due largely to Republican policies and obstruction.

Truman in 1948, had a badly divided party and was not well-funded, but he managed to educate the voters and carry the battle to the GOP. In 2012, the question is whether the voters are as educable as those in 1948. Can Obama catch Truman's fire and persuasiveness?

[Don Swift, a retired history professor, also writes under the name Sherman DeBrosse. Read more articles by Don Swift on The Rag Blog.]

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11 July 2012

Don Swift : Cultural Cognition, Collective Memory, and Tea Party Republicanism

Image from Religion Nerd.

Cultural cognition, collective memory,
and Tea Party Republicanism
The right-wing information machine is very adept at wiring for its followers a collective memory that filters out contradictory information.
By Don Swift / The Rag Blog / July 11, 2012

The first entry in this series sought to move toward an explanation of how so many Americans readily believe false, and often preposterous, claims.

Mary Matalin and others easily get by with claiming that the Great Recession and high unemployment were due to Democratic efforts to regulate the economy. This is believed by millions who needed no factual information to support the claim. People believe these things because their thought processes have been influenced by various forms of collective meaning assignment. They watch Fox News, listen to Glenn Beck, go to a Sarah Palin rally, or talk to co-religionists after their church service.

Scholars associated with the Cultural Cognition Project showed how people adopted positions on matters such as global warming as a function of their group identity and political affiliation. This probably also explains how four highly educated U.S. Supreme Court justices found it possible to scuttle decades of precedents in declaring that the Affordable Health Care Act was not justified by the commerce clause of the Constitution. One, Antonin Scalia, was so politically agitated that he used the occasion to rant against Barack Obama's recent executive order on immigration law enforcement policy.

It is possible to understand even more why so many people adopt strange positions and policies that work against their best interest when we consider what is known about collective memory or selective memory.

Collective memory works like “mythic history,” according to Pierre Nora, a French expert on history and memory. It replaces real history and is fervently believed. Collective memories are about our identities, so strong emotions reinforce them. That is why they are considered sacred.

The term “collective memory” is useful and evolved out of Emile Durkheim’s concept of collective consciousness. Yet, we know that there is no particular place in a collectivity where a memory is stored. It is a common memory existing in the minds of members of an identity group and also in symbols, texts, and other parts of a culture. It is a product of culture and identity and is not genetic in any way.

Some members have a stronger emotional attachment to it than others. The concept is an effort to get at how people’s thinking is shaped by a culture or subculture and by membership in a group.

According to Peter Novick, “Collective memory simplifies, sees events from a single, committed perspective; is impatient with ambiguities of any kind...” It overlooks historicity all the complexities involved with examining events in different contexts and in another time. It provides “imaginary representations and historical realities” that are deeply rooted in cultural identity and the values of an imaginary community.

Collective memory emerges from social arrangements and the “ways minds work together in society,” and “totemic meanings” emerge that are part of a community’s super-ego. It is an imaginative form of historical consciousness based “more on myths than facts.”

In brief, collective memory refers to how people recall in the context of a group. It is never objective or value-free, and it reflects simulations of the past shaped by present needs. It can be politicized memory.

Its formation is, according to Nora, “largely unconscious” and it “accommodates only those facts that suit it.” Collective or social memory, when it appears in a political context, can be very malleable. For example, the Tea Party people initially were angry about Wall Street abuses, but they were soon convinced that it would be un-American to punish or regulate the irresponsible bankers.

The right-wing information machine is very adept at wiring for its followers a collective memory that filters out contradictory information. This is why very few conservatives can bring themselves to believe that only months ago, Willard Mitt Romney said he opposed efforts to prevent health insurance companies from denying coverages due to preexisting conditions.

People who identify with the Tea Party derive emotional satisfaction from clinging to the collective memory created by right-wing spokesmen because they fervently believe it is the purest form of the conventional wisdom. The causes for its emergence remain and what is occurring now is the emergence of a Tea Party collective memory, which will help perpetuate it.

Absurdities can be passionately believed because they become inextricable from identity. Longtime conservative mastery of cognitive science and communications techniques has made it possible to persuade many people of all sorts of propositions that simply defy logic and reality.

Decades of work by corporate America and the Republican information machine have created a conventional wisdom that is difficult to dispute with solid facts.  The existence of this ersatz conventional wisdom made possible the rise of Tea Party hysteria; it will become the framework for the movement’s collective memory.

In the past, collective memory emerged slowly through word of mouth. In the print era, it could develop more rapidly. Today, with the help of electronic media and round the clock cable news, it can emerge almost overnight, especially when people face multiple crises and are in a state of near panic.

The creation of a Tea Party collective memory is simply an extension of several decades of Republican mastery of linguistic and cognitive theory. The beauty of collective memory is that it creates memories that can have nothing to do with reality. They can be passionately believed because they become inextricable from identity.

A great danger is that the emergence of a Tea Bagger collective memory will serve to keep many former independents -- some political neophytes -- in the conservative movement after the economy improves. The Tea Party claims of victimhood give them a collective identity and invite them to buy into a collective memory that could make them committed rightists for decades to come. Some may also be persuaded to become gun show/gun shop patrons and join one militia or another.

As the Anglo Caucasian element in the population becomes smaller, it is likely that the Tea Party collective memory will attract even more followers. If the economy remains sluggish at the same time, a Tea Party majority is not out of the question.

Conservatives have many advantages in shaping collective memory, and it is sometimes forgotten that presidents of the United States also have the ability to mold it in ways that are favorable to their policies. Barack Obama has an opportunity to link his battle against Romney and the apologists for privilege to the narratives of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry S. Truman, and other Democratic presidents.

Perhaps he cannot use some of Roosevelt's blunt language because generations have been conditioned against “class conflict.” But he needs to remind voters that there have always been forces that sought to block the ordinary family's quest for the American Dream.

[Don Swift, a retired history professor, also writes under the name Sherman DeBrosse. Read more articles by Don Swift on The Rag Blog.]

Also see "The Republican Brain on 'The Republican Brain'" by Chris Mooney on The Rag Blog, and "Chris Mooney Dissects the Republican Brain'" by Thorne Dreyer, with the podcast of Dreyer's Rag Radio interview with Mooney.

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28 June 2012

Don Swift : Cultural Cognition and Today's Politics

Cartoon by Bennett / Chattanooga Times Free Press. Image from Picasa.

Fact and fiction:
Cultural cognition and today's politics
The scholars have noted a tendency for people to 'conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact... to values that define their cultural identities.'
By Don Swift / The Rag Blog / June 28, 2012

Most of us have lists of recent misstatements of fact by people in the political arena. The words of the Birthers and those who rant about Barack Obama being a Muslim and a socialist are on all of our lists.

Mitt Romney has added many outright falsehoods to my list. Three of them are (1) that Obama made things much worse, (2) that Obama follows economic policies he knows cannot work, and (3) that Obama has accelerated the rate of federal spending.

There are many more, and they usually go unchallenged -- in part because reason and facts are playing a much smaller role in our politics.

Scholars connected with the Cultural Cognition Project centered at Yale study "how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs.” Their work builds on Mary Douglas' and Aaron Wildavsky's studies of how cultural factors influence people's perceptions of societal risks.

The Cultural Cognition Project scholars have noted a tendency for people to “conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact... to values that define their cultural identities.” In a sense, people tend to shop for information and misinformation that is consistent with their values and identities.

Perhaps the most alarming illustration of this tendency is the growing body of Americans who let their cultural values dictate opinions about matters of scientific fact, particularly in the growing denial of human involvement in global warming.

It was found that people with egalitarian and communitarian values were more receptive to troubling information about climate change than those who esteemed individualism and hierarchy. The latter were very receptive to information that denied the dangers of climate change. People, especially those with strong group identities, have a strong desire for culturally congenial beliefs. This is why those who supply misinformation are so successful.

Psychologist Jonathan Haidt wrote that “our minds contain a variety of mental mechanisms that make us adept at promoting our group's interests in competition with other groups." The earliest humans survived not so much by reasoning as by clinging to the group, tending to be good team players.

Psychologists talk about “motivated reasoning,” which Dan Kahan at Yale describes as “when a person is conforming their assessments of information to some interest or goal that is independent of accuracy.”

At Stanford an experiment was performed where conservative subjects were told about a generous welfare proposal and were told it was a Republican plan. The opposite was done with liberal subjects. Both test groups tended to identify with plans that were ascribed to their reference groups. Increasing polarization probably magnifies this tendency to assess proposals on this basis rather than on a purely policy basis, separate from considerations of partisan identity.

Recent years have also seen a growing inclination to treat misinformation as being as respectable as facts. One reason the United States has entered a period of non-factual politics is that so many people let their identities get entangled with clearly false information. People have a way of reinforcing their cultural identities in this manner.

People have always let their normative biases be shaped by their political and moral identities. But what is occurring now represents an extreme case, and the moral and political identities for many have now merged. It is noted that people seem to be given to “misfearing” -- exaggerating threats and seeing some that may not exist. In a highly fragmented society besieged by multiple crises, many are more likely to cling to their cultural identities and feel hostile to those who do not share their views.

David Hoffman has noted data from a recent Pew poll that shows that party affiliation is increasingly a reliable and strong predictor of cultural values. He sees in progress a partisan-realignment developing along value dimensions that has been in progress since 1987. Increasing political polarization has produced an “illiberal form of expressive politics” in which reason is devalued and in which it becomes more difficult for people to reason together.

These writers are conducting careful studies to see how the concept of cultural cognition relates to the broader realm of cultural theory. They are also considering ways to manage cultural cognition for the good of society. That is to say, they are interested in finding ways where people with different cultural perceptions on matters such as global warming, gun control, and handling nuclear waste can converge on shared beliefs and work toward policies that benefit all.

The concept of cultural cognition seems particularly valuable for understanding the super-heated politics of 2012, a time when government is gridlocked and fact and reasoned argument seem to have a very small place in the national political arena.

There have been somewhat similar times in the past. High emotion and willingness to believe some pretty tall tales marked the Know Nothings of the 19th century. The abolitionists and southern Fire Eaters and Secessionists showed little disposition to reasoned discourse and were not inclined to sit down and reason together. The politics of the late 19th century were often marked by considerable ethnocultural conflict and cultural cognition and high degrees of emotionalism were sometimes present.

Since the rise of the New Right, American politics has been marked by extraordinary levels of vitriol and emotion. These undesirable characteristics have been accompanied by a much greater tendency to make unsupported assertions and even outright falsehoods. With the appearance of the Tea Party movement in 2009, these tendencies have almost become the defining characteristics of American politics.

The levels of paranoia, rage, and vitriol have been greatly ramped up. Hyperbole, falsehoods, and  unsupportable claims have become so commonplace that few in the media bother to correct them or note that they are in any way unusual. They are treated as being just as legitimate as positions grounded in reason and fact. The level of irrationality seems high, large numbers of people believe really absurd things, such as that Barack Obama was born in Kenya.

The kind of political emotionalism we observe today has been ascribed to past “creedal passion periods.” George F. Will, a leading conservative pundit, explained that, with the appearance of the Tea Party, the nation had come into another “creedal passion period.”

He noted that the late Samuel P. Huntington who developed that term had identified four other creedal passion periods in American history, and Will pronounced the present period the fifth. In Wills' interpretation, the creedal passion is all about returning to first principles, and he noted that Huntington believed that “the distinctive aspect of the American creed is its anti-government character.”The concept of cultural cognition is certainly consistent with that of the “creedal passion period.”

The premier social scientist Samuel P. Huntington attempted to explain why American politics have sometimes been marked by periods of intense emotions which have taken precedence over the usual interest group politics. They interrupt the normal “pattern of political continuity and equilibrium.”

Huntington saw periodic intrusions of “passion, moralism, intensified conflict, reform, and realignment.” These have occurred in roughly 60-year cycles. Hunnington thought there were four of these “creedal passion moments": the American revolution, the Age of Jackson, the Progressive Era, and the 1960s.

These outbursts of emotional and moralistic energy have occurred because Americans periodically want to narrow the distance between American ideals and realities. They are outraged by what they perceive as outright corruption and also serious failures to live up to American ideals. Writing for The Guardian in 2011, Michael Weiss also saw the Tea Party as a creedal passion movement and added that it was already in decline. This was written before that Republican faction tied the House of Representatives up in knots over the budget and extending the national debt ceiling.

These moral energies have their roots in the English Revolution of 1688 and America's strong Protestant heritage, which Huntington thought shaped what America is all about. He granted that the Anglo-Protestant heritage positively interacted with the 18th-century Enlightenment ideas that the founders came to revere. The first two American Great Awakenings also generated moral forces that were to underpin American political life.

Hunnington believed that the United States can contain the energies unleashed by creedal passion periods and come through them improved and stronger because there is such widespread agreement on American ideals. By contrast, Huntington did not think these moralistic creedal passion periods could occur in Europe, where there was class conflict and powerful ideological divisions.

Huntington noted that creedal passion moments were marked by unrealistic expectation of moral perfection and that this outlook got in the way of practical solutions. Nevertheless, he saw results that could be labeled as democratic and reformist. For the most part, he saw people on the Left as being passionate and often harboring unrealistic expectations and demanding too much.

Huntington did not live long enough to see the Tea Party movement. In his last days, he expressed concern that the United States was experiencing an identity crisis, and he was very concerned that the nation's culture and creed must remain firmly rooted in Anglo-Protestantism.

His creedal passion moments were about reaffirming first principles, and those, he thought, were the Protestant values of the nation's founders. The Harvard scholar saw three forces threatening the nation's traditional values and identity: (1) multiculturalism, which he thought could undermine civic education, (2) “transnationalism,” the tendency of leftists and corporate executives to see themselves as citizens of the world, and (3) the “Hispanization of America.”

He feared that the United States “could evolve into a loose confederation of ethnic, racial, cultural, and political groups.” Huntington was correct that many Americans shared his concerns about growing cultural pluralism. He was no nativist, but many who did worry about the nation's changing character and identity probably were not on his lofty level.

When the Tea Party erupted in 2009, its members were often strongly anti-immigrant and also hostile to African Americans. Clearly, concerns about a changing American identity contributed to the coming of the Tea Party.

Whether it is just the latest creedal passion movement is another matter. Huntington wrote that the previous creedal passion periods produced reformist, liberal, and democratic results. They brought the nation more in line with its historical ideals.

Perhaps the answer to this question depends upon the definitions one employs. It is difficult to find democratic and liberal elements in the Tea Party movement. There is a far greater unwillingness to compromise than found in participants in previous creedal passion periods. Nativism, xenophobia, and anti-black attitudes have deep roots in American history; but they are not the nation's first principles. The presence of so much violent rhetoric might suggest a parallel to our revolutionary ancestors or the most extreme Locofocos in the 1830s.

A troubling part of the effort at comparison is that the Tea Party's notion of traditional Americanism is so remote from reality and the nation's past. Its constitutional theory is far removed from modern constitutional history and resembles the extreme claims of southern secessionists in the mid-nineteenth century. Their economic and social views -- unrestrained, raw capitalism and Social Darwinism -- seem to be a throwback to a disgraceful period in American history, the Age of the Robber Barons.

Many writers have classified the Tea Party movement as a right-wing populist movement. This is the same classification accorded the Religious Right, and broader New Right. Both are given to conspiracy theories and emotional rhetoric. Both claim to speak for the true majority and maintain that they are battling an established “elite.”

A problem with this classification of the Tea Party as populist is that populism is related to status theory and it usually applies to an aggrieved class or cultural group. If it is economic or left-wing populism, it describes a class or classes.

The Tea Party movement has to do with national identity and the perception that the nation is in decline or facing severe crisis. It is not about identifiable classes or a particular cultural group. However, careful classification is difficult because it energizes many resentments and romanticist impulses around its core of anti-tax, anti-government, and anti-modern goals.

Historical comparisons are useful, but it could be that the extremism that has overtaken the Republicans exceeds that found in past situations. Michael Stafford, a syndicated columnist, wrote that a form of  "political rabies” has infected the Republican Party, and he has decided to leave it.

At the time he wrote that column, the Montana Republicans were holding their state convention. Outside the building was an outhouse called “Obama's Presidential Library.” Inside was the alleged birth certificate of “Barack Hussein Obama,” which was stamped with words that mean cow or bull droppings. On the wall under “For A Good Time” were the names and fake phone numbers of Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi.”

The Democrats have become more partisan than they were, but they have not moved dramatically to the left, nor have they adopted a bevy of strange arguments that defy rational explanation. The cultural cognition argument partly explains what seems to be Republican group think, but it does not fully explain the drift to extremism and the political rabies Stafford describes.

The answer probably lies in the fact that so many Republicans feel deeply threatened by cultural change and the emergence of a pluralistic, multicultural America. Of course, the threats of terrorism and economic decline effect all Americans.

In future articles Don Swift will discuss how scholars have dealt with high levels of emotionalism and irrationality in American politics.

[Don Swift, a retired history professor, also writes under the name Sherman DeBrosse. Read more articles by Don Swift on The Rag Blog.]

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28 September 2011

Don Swift : Rick Perry and the New Apostolic Reformation

Rev. Tom Schlueter, a New Apostolic Reformation pastor, shown laying his hands on Rick Perry in front of a painting of the Battle at the Alamo. Image from Right Speak.

A threat to American liberties:
Rick Perry and the New Apostolic Reformation
Two years ago, two NAR ministers explained to Perry that Texas had been anointed by God to bring America to Godly rule.
By Don Swift / The Rag Blog / September 28, 2011

[This is the third in a series on Dominionism by Don Swift.]

The most vigorous branch of Dominionism is the New Apostolic Reformation. Rev. Dr. C. Peter Wagner of Global Harvest Ministries in Colorado Springs, is the “convening Apostle” or leading light in New Apostolic Reformation, and he says the reformation or New Apostolic Age began in 2001.

A former professor at Fuller Theological Seminary, Wagner is famous for helping develop the “growth model” that was to produce the huge megachurches that now dot the land. He and his followers aim for a post-denominational Christianity shaped by them. Their leaders are God’s new apostles and prophets who have greater power than the original apostles and prophets.

Spiritual warriors must convert adherents of other churches and seek political power. They think the end times will see the perfection of Christianity and they will have a perfected religion to turn over to Christ, when he returns. They will be given great power and crush evil with a “rod of iron.”

These NAR Dominionists look to the day when they and, above all, their clergy take over society. Dr. Wagner advocates a pragmatic theology which justifies acting in a way whereby the ends justify the means. His followers tend to be Charismatics and Pentecostals, and they are post-millennialists rather than pre-millennialists. That is, they believe that Christ must return to earth before they can complete the work of establishing his Kingdom. Of course, not all Charismatics or Pentecostals are Dominionists.

The New Apostolics are busy in worldly affairs because they believe they are destined to rule. In addition they want to expel demons, witches, and sorcerers, and they claim the power to physically heal others and raise people from the dead.

They believe they have the world’s only valid religious belief system. They want a post-denominational church, but it will not be warm and fuzzy as some think. People can be forced to join the new non-denominational Christianity for their own good, and other churches can be forced to stop teaching false doctrines. One official of Morningstar Ministries admits that life under their theocratic rule “may seem totalitarian at first.”

They target youth to be members of Joel’s Army (a distortion of an illusion in Book Joel 2) to seize political power and force non-believers to accept their version of Christianity. In addition to Joel's Army, they have used other names like Shepherding, Latter Rain, and Manifest Sons of God.

These churches engage in “spiritual warfare” as was depicted in the movie Jesus Camp. In the film, young people were trained to “take dominion” over the world. They will also purge the Christian church of elements that strongly disagree with them.

These sincere Christians believe that the world is inhabited by all sorts of demons and that the powers of demons even get passed down in families, just as curses are passed down. Some demons run territories; others inhabit some of their enemies, and still other very powerful demons run churches they dislike. The reverse side of believing in evil demons is the teaching that the New Apostolics have the power to heal, raise the dead, and successfully combat the forces of darkness.

NAR Dominionists seriously think some people are sorcerers or demons and must be fought. They think sorcery runs in families. They see themselves as being involved in continual spiritual warfare. NAR people see themselves as spiritual warriors and “prayer warriors” who constitute the “Army of God.” It seems we heard that name in some other context of late.

They are out to destroy the demons and evil spirits that cause problems in a territory so that the truly saved can take over and rule. Congress has helped the movement by giving it millions in grants for abstinence sex education and anti-AIDS projects.

They see secularists as members of satanic armies and demonic enemies of religion and freedom. Bill Bright, founder of the Campus Crusade for Christ, believed that demons were active agents that could take over institutions and political entities. Many Dominionists share this belief. Lou Engle, of the Family Research Council, who has also prayed with Michele Bachmann, frequently said that the people supporting health care reform were guided by demons.

Rick Perry, a Pentecostal, also has strong ties to Dominionism, but he does not seem to go as far as Rep. Bachmann. He is particularly attractive to a group of Pentecostal Dominionists who are members of the New Apostolic Reformation movement. Rev. Tom Schlueter, a New Apostolic Reformation pastor, is close to Perry. Schlueter has said that God called the NAR to infiltrate government: “We’re going to infiltrate [the government], not run from it. I know why God’s doing what he’s doing ... He’s just simply saying, ‘Tom I’ve given you authority in a governmental authority, and I need you to infiltrate the governmental mountain.”

NAR pastors call the Lone Star State the "Prophet State,” meaning it was foretold that it was to be a template for the rest of America. Two years ago, two NAR ministers explained to Perry that Texas had been anointed by God to bring America to Godly rule. They had been instructed to visit Perry by one of their prophets, Chuck Pierce of Denton, Texas.

Eight NAR leaders were deeply involved in Perry's recent prayer rally, called “The Response.” Not everyone who attended that event was a Dominionist or even knew what that term meant.

Few note that Governor Perry sent invitations on official stationery and promoted it on a state government web site. Dominionist Mike Bickle of the International House of Prayer also played an important role at the event. He claims that demons have repeatedly attacked him and is known for his address “Authority of the Believer, Exercising Our Dominion in Christ.”

[Don Swift, a retired history professor, also writes under the name Sherman DeBrosse. Read more articles by Don Swift on The Rag Blog.]

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21 September 2011

Don Swift : Dominionists and the 'Kingdom of God'

Image from The Last Crisis.

A threat to American liberties:
Dominionists and the 'Kingdom of God'
They want to take over government and create a theocracy. No wonder they see nothing wrong in playing politics from the pulpit.
By Don Swift / The Rag Blog / September 21, 2011

[This is the second in a series on Dominionism by Don Swift. See Part I here.]

Dominionists refuse to accept the separation of church and state. They want to take over government and other areas of society and create a theocracy. No wonder they see nothing wrong in playing politics from the pulpit.

Reverend Ed Kalnins, once Sarah Palin's pastor at the Wasilla Assembly of God Church, has consigned critics of George W. Bush to hell. He even denounced those who criticized Bush’s handling of Katrina. He doubted that people who voted for John Kerry in 2004 would be welcomed to heaven.

He said: "I'm not going tell you who to vote for, but if you vote for this particular person, I question your salvation. I'm sorry." Kalnins added: "If every Christian will vote righteously, it would be a landslide every time.

There are different forms of Dominionism. Christian Reconstructionism is one important form. These people believe that the Kingdom of God was established on earth at the time of the Resurrection and that it is their job to complete its work by taking control of society. Then Christ can return in the Second Coming. Scholars concerned with technicalities say this view is rooted in pre-suppositionism, meaning the kingdom must be in place before the Second Coming.

Calvinist theologian J.Rousas Rushdoony founded the movement Christian Reconstructionism back in the 1960s. Author of the three volume Institutes of Biblical Law, Rushdoony was a prolific writer, and he was a founder of the Christian home-schooling movement. He also defended American slavery. He appeared often on Pat Robertson's television program in the 1980s, but Robertson claims he does not understand what Dominionism is.

Rushdoomy hated the Federal Reserve and was revered by gold hoarders. He thought that American law should be replaced with the Old Testament. The irony is that some of his followers today are vociferous in denouncing shariah law. He wrote in 1982, “With the coming collapse of the humanistic state, the Christian must be prepared to take over...”

This rightist prophet led the Chalcedon Foundation, which carries on his work and is known for its virulent homophobia. His followers are bent on reconstructing “our fallen society,” and the recent efforts of the Tea Baggers to bring down the financial system is an indication of how far they will go.

They take seriously the extreme and harsh punishments in the Old Testament and would apply the death penalty to apostasy, homosexuality, and abortion. Many believe the Bible requires physical punishment of children. Some believe that seven years of slavery would be an acceptable punishment for some offenses today, but none believe that slavery now should be based on race.

The Christian Reconstructionists or Theonomists have influenced numerous Protestant leaders without necessarily making them Dominionists. Jerry Falwell and D. James Kennedy have supported Dominionist books.

They have a “kingdom-now theology.” In the George W. Bush White House, Marvin Olasky, a Christian Reconstructionist, had great influence.

George Grant, former executive director of Coral Ridge Ministry, said that "it is dominion we are after. Not just a voice ... It is dominion we are after. Not just equal time ... World conquest.” That organization is now called Truth in Action Ministries, and Rep. Michelle Bachmann has close ties to it.

She appeared in one of its documentaries that attacks socialism, and she has espoused the Dominionist position that government has no right to collect more than 10% of a person's earnings in taxes. She has also promoted Grant's book on Robert E. Lee, in which the godly Confederacy battled the godless North. It is a pro-slavery book, and Bachmann recommended it on her web site for some time.

Michelle Bachmann has admitted being strongly influenced by a Reconstructionist, John Eidsmore, a Dominionist teaching at Oral Roberts University, a Pentecostal school. Eidsmore spoke to Alabama secessionists last year and defended the right of a state to secede and explicitly endorsed the constitutional views of John C. Calhoun and Jefferson Davis.

Bachmann has also said that she was influenced by the writings of Dominionist Francis Schaeffer. Bachmann said she decided to become a politician after watching one of his films Three years before his death, Schaeffer warned that America would descend into a tyrannical state and that an authoritarian elite would scheme to bring about this terrible result. He believed that only true Christians should rule.

Bachmann has also had good things to say about Dominionist historian David Barton, whose website is WallBuilders. He had followed Rushdoony in defending American slavery. Barton teaches that the Bible provides clear guidance on all public policy matters.

[Don Swift, a retired history professor, also writes under the name Sherman DeBrosse. Read more articles by Don Swift on The Rag Blog.]

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14 September 2011

Don Swift : Perry, Bachmann, and the Threat of Dominionism

Image (without irony) from OpenAirSeattle.

A threat to American liberties:
Dominionism and the Republican Right
Both Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann have clear ties to the Christian Dominionists, who do not believe in the separation of church and state.
By Don Swift / The Rag Blog / September 14, 2011

[This is the first in a series on Dominionism by Don Swift.]


In 1960, Senator John F. Kennedy, then a candidate for the presidency, found it necessary to explain to assembled Baptist ministers in Houston that he would respect the American principle of separation of church and state and that he would not let the Catholic bishops dictate policy to him.

In 2008, many were troubled by the views of Senator Barack Obama's pastor, the Reverend Dr. Jeremiah Wright, who had a direct way of putting things and sometimes seemed too influenced by racial bitterness. Obama had to distance himself from his friend and leave the congregation.

In this presidential election cycle, two of the leading Republican candidates for the presidency, Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann, have clear ties to the Christian Dominionists, who do not believe in the separation of church and state. Should one of them become the Republican standard bearer, he or she should be required to answer some probing questions about the separation of church and state and the attitudes of his or her Dominionist friends.

These people are not friends of democracy. Sarah Palin, a very influential Republican who seems to be weighing the possibility of running for the nomination, also is tied to the Dominionists.

In addition, there is The Family or The Fellowship, a semi-secret religious organization comprised almost entirely of Republican politicians who work behind the scenes to translate their religious beliefs into public policy. By all accounts this secretive brotherhood possesses great power and has connections and influence throughout our society.

Although many have claimed these people are Dominionists, it is not at all clear that their ultimate goal is to exclude non-Christians from office. They seem perfectly content to guide others in exercising power. They might better be designated soft Dominionists, but their lust for autocratic power is no less frightening than the desires of the hard Dominionists. Like the hard Dominionists, they see themselves as a spiritual royalty or elite who have a special claim to the right to shape the nation's affairs.

Their clandestine operations and mingling of religion and politics are not a healthy development and are inconsistent with the separation of church and state.

Dominionism is an academic term that applies to the belief that the saved must battle to take over the world in God’s name and rule it according to Biblical principles and injunctions. It refers to a conservative Protestant movement that is both political and religious.

The basis for Dominionism is found in Genesis 1: 26-27, where God gave Adam dominion over all earthly things. Though Adam and his progeny lost that power through the fall, it is believed that baptism restored that power to true believers. They were meant to rule, and governance by people they consider non-Christians is a kind of sacrilege.

There is a tendency among them to delegitimate other Christian religions and to even hold that demons run some other churches. Some Dominionists hold that unbelievers can be compelled to accept salvation. They adhere to some unusual beliefs that many say are unbiblical. For example, they teach that some of their leaders can somehow incarnate Christ and exercise his power in this world.

In 1994, Frederick Clarkson wrote that Dominionism and Social Darwinism are of the same cloth. Social Darwinism is misnamed; it really goes back to Thomas Malthus, a misguided preacher who thought that intense competitiveness and self-interest were the essence of social evolution. Rejecting any compassion, he thought it right and natural that the strong benefit at the expense of the weak.

Charles Darwin did not think this way and wrote about how compassion and kindness were necessary and part of human nature. The Dominionists believe it is sinful for people in distress to look to government for help; God will provide. Like our Puritan ancestors, they thought that the rich were blessed by God, and the poor deserved their fate.

Scholars have noted that Social Darwinism is frequently associated with authoritarian mindsets and strong suspicion of others. In the case of the Dominionists, they use a distorted form of Christianity and Social Darwinism to define themselves as an elite and to define others in such a negative way that it is easy to generate considerable hostility toward them.

Clarkson added that they expect women to be submissive and stay at home. This outlook has changed because there are so many females among the Dominionist leadership. Even Michele Bachmann, who once defended submission, is now busy defining it away.

Dominionism always involves an element of elitism and more than a small dose of authoritarianism. These people think they have been selected by God to rule. Especially empowered in that way, they tend to think that whatever they do is justified. They see those who disagree as agents of the forces of evil.

The 75 year-old Family or Fellowship, based in the Washington, D.C. area, is an organization that reflects this elitism and authoritarian outlook. Its views smack heavily of theocracy, but a careful student of the cult could conclude that they worship power itself.

Image from a website called "7 Mountains: Fulfilling Your God Given Assignment."

Dominionists speak in terms of reclaiming the earth from Satan and capturing the seven mountains of church, family, education, arts and entertainment, business, media, and government. Each of the seven mountains should be ruled by Dominionists.

No one knows how many Dominionists there are in the United States. Some of them speak in terms numbering half of one percent of the population. Others claim a growth rate of 9 million a year, which is very unlikely. The number of people who would claim this label is probably small, but Dominionists' influence among conservative Christians is substantial and growing. They thoroughly understand the mindset of conservative Christians and are very adept at inserting their ideas into many parts of it.

This world of Dominionism can be assessed through television networks like GODTV, DayStar, and the Trinity Broadcasting Network. Dominionists are clearly active, zealous, and well organized, and their numbers appear to be growing among evangelical Protestant clergy. Their ideas are clearly cross-fertilizing with other forms of conservative Protestant Christianity.

Some see Dominionism as a sort of Christian Wahabism They all think that true Christians were given by God a right to rule all human institutions. If one doubts that these people lack influence, recall Senator Charles Grassley's efforts to look into six religious organizations that were accused of converting religious funds to personal use. He backed off, and his staff recommended that the IRS repeal the rule preventing churches from electioneering.

Dominionists have substantial influence among today's Tea Party Republican leaders. Recently there were several carefully researched articles on Dominionism, and CNN's Jack Cafferty even had an essay on it. There followed a stream of articles by right-wing publicists reassuring us that no Christians want to take over government, that they just want to have some influence in it.

Michael Gerson, one of the most capable Republican spokesmen, took the lead in distancing Tea Party leaders from Dominionism. He attributes fear of the Dominionists to the anti-religious attitudes of many liberals. Lisa Miller, Newsweek's religion editor, also said fear of the Dominionists is unwarranted. And Ralph Reed has said that the Dominionists do not exist: “The notion that Bachmann, Perry or other candidates secretly harbor ‘dominionist’ theology is a conspiracy theory largely confined to university faculty lounges and MSNBC studios.”

Recently, some Dominionist clergymen came forward to say that they really are not seeking a “theocracy.” On the other hand, more than a few respected evangelical spokesmen state that the fears are not unwarranted, and they distinguish between themselves and the Dominionists. Some of them must have read enough to realize that the Dominionists intend to take over their denominations.

Dominionists think God intervenes regularly in earthly matters. Some think that the terrible Japanese earthquake was God's punishment for not heeding one of God's decree. On the other hand, they say that God ended mad cow disease in Germany and a drought in Texas. It is said among them that Jezebel and three minor demons run the Democratic Party. In Texas, they have strange ceremonies with plumb lines and branding irons; and they are said to have driven inscribed stakes into the ground in every county.

Michele Bachmann half-joked that God might have sent Hurricane Irene to show his displeasure that Americans have not fixed their debt problem. She seems to think that God has very clear ideas about public policy. On a Truth in Action ministries video, she said that God taught that no tax money should be spent on social welfare. It should all come from charity.

Dominionists present a serious danger to the Republic because they do not believe in the separation of church and state and because they consider themselves a royal priesthood entitled to rule. People who think they are that special will do anything to gain power and will misuse it when they want.

Of course, there are other groups out there who also think they are that special. A problem is that the Dominionists, including the soft Dominionists in The Family or The Fellowship, have a way of allying with these other power-hungry groups such as the corporate elite and extremists in the intelligence and military communities.

[Don Swift, a retired history professor, also writes under the name Sherman DeBrosse. Read more articles by Don Swift on The Rag Blog.]The Rag Blog

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18 May 2011

Don Swift : The Republicans' Debt Default Threat

OMG. The Republicans' default threat. Image from Reuters.

What will the GOP demand in
return for raising the debt ceiling?
The Republicans have used the threat of shutdown to make excessive demands. So far, the public has not rewarded their cynical efforts with contempt and revulsion.
By Don Swift / The Rag Blog / May 18, 2011

For months Republicans have been threatening to shut down the government if they don't get what they want as payment for voting to raise the debt ceiling. This is a strange situation because they overwhelmingly control the House and have the responsibility for rounding up the votes to raise the ceiling. The people who are supposed to be producing a solution are threatening legislative terrorism as though they were still the minority.

George Packer writes that “the side with a fixed notion of ends and and an unscrupulous approach to means always has the advantage.” Add to this their domination of the public discussion, and it becomes clear why they are likely to get much of what they demand.

Everyone in the financial community seems to agree with Jamie Dimon of JP MorganChase that failure to raise the debt limit would be “catastrophic” and do great harm to financial markets. Despite this, the Republicans have used the threat of shutdown to make excessive demands. So far, the public has not rewarded their cynical efforts with contempt and revulsion.

As The New York Times notes, “the Republicans... now control the federal steering wheel.” They have control of policy, but a huge slice of the public do not understand this and will blame the Democrats for whatever goes wrong. That is why the Democrats have given away so much already.

In setting conditions for raising the debt ceiling, Republicans have several priorities.
  1. Above all they will oppose any deal that raises tax rates.

  2. They must get extensive budget cuts because they have repeatedly said that cutting expenses -- and even jobs -- somehow creates jobs. It makes no economic sense, but this has become dogma for them. They must make cuts and hope that Obama's programs will continue to bring recovery and create jobs. If there is more recovery by November 2012, the GOP will take credit. If their cuts damage the economy, Obama and the Democrats are to blame.

  3. Protecting their key constituents down the road from tax increases is their top priority. They want to take steps to prevent government from raising taxes on the rich and corporations to meet rising entitlement and medical care expenses. They are worried about the ever increasing cost of taking care of the elderly. In 2010, the Republicans gained many votes by denouncing the Democrats for trimming Medicare of $500 billion over 10 years. When the GOP took control of the House, they voted to affirm all $500 billion of that cut. This was consistent with their goal of cutting entitlement costs. Only Republican columnist Richard Morris noted the vote and feared that the voters would remember it. That is most unlikely.
Annual increases in the cost of medical services far exceed overall inflation. The nation has rejected single payer health care, which would have contained costs, and the Republicans are bent on scuttling recently enacted savings mechanisms for Medicaid. Even more threatening than the annual increase in the cost of services is the number of people who are eligible for benefits. From 2007 to 2020, that number will increase by one third.

The long term Republican objective is to reduce federal spending to 16-18% of Gross Domestic Product. This provision is the key to their balanced budget amendment. It sets a ceiling of 18%, but the wording is that the GDP figure would be that of the last calendar year within the previous fiscal year. That means that the growth rate of that last calendar year would not be included in the calculations, so the actual spending limit would be set at about 16.7%.

The last time that government spending was at that fraction of the GDP was 1956, a time when Medicare and Medicaid did not exist. Social Security was far less inclusive then. To exceed the spending limit would require two-thirds votes in both houses of Congress. The amendment requires a three-fifths vote in each house to raise the debt limit.

As a down payment on meeting Republican demands, the Democrats gave them $38.5 billion in cuts, which came mainly from the departments of education, labor, and health. Those cuts will come out of the hide of the sick and poor and will also cost hundreds of thousands of jobs.

In addition, the Democrats agreed to provisions designed to hobble the new consumer protection bureau. There will be numerous audits of the agency conducted by the government and private sector entities. Studies will be made to focus on how much regulations cost financial institutions, but there is not one provision calling for studies of whether the regulations do anything of value for ordinary people.

So far, the Republicans swept the field. There were no cuts in defense or in the myriad of programs providing corporate welfare, and every single tax loophole for corporations remained in place. Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, now famous for his plan to quickly starve Medicare and privatize Medicare in 10 years, said he “got 79% of what we wanted.”

Ryan offered a plan that would include all the Republican budget goals. It ends health care reform, makes permanent tax cuts for the wealthy, and privatizes Medicare in 10 years. Its main accomplishment would be sharply reducing Medicaid coverage in many states within a few years. By 2012, the federal government would begin cutting a $100 billion a year from its support of the program.

Ryan would kill the health care reform plan and privatize Medicare in 10 years. People 55 and over would keep existing Medicare. Essentially they are being bribed with good medical benefits in return for stripping their children and grandchildren of Medicare as we know it. In 10 years, Medicare would become a subsidy the federal government mails to one's health insurer. Each year, that subsidy would buy less coverage, and the person who is covered would pay more out of pocket.

Today, Medicaid is administered by the states, but they must provide certain services to all the people who qualify for assistance. Federal and state money pays for the services, and the beneficiaries might have a small co-payment. Under the Ryan plan, there would no longer be the guarantee that the state would take care of as many people as meet federal criteria.

There will be a federal block grant, and the states will add money. Then the states decide what to do with the Medicaid money. The idea behind block grants is to allow the federal government to avoid assuming the increased costs of medical care. Annually, the block grant might rise by the amount of inflation for that year, but it would fall short of meeting the inflation rate in medical services.

The states would be left with three options or a combination of them: (1) reduce the number of people covered by Medicaid, (2) increase the co-payments, (3) or reduce the number of services covered.

All but four House Republicans voted to support the proposal. However, they ran into stiff citizen opposition to Medicare changes when they returned to their districts. Some said the opposition was mere AstroTurf -- not very deep. That may well be true, as they seem able to sell anything to the public these days. Nevertheless, they have decided to defer the destruction of Medicare. It is more likely that they will seek to enact the other part of the Ryan Plan, gradually defunding Medicaid and turning it over to the states through a block grant mechanism.

When the GOP backed away from the Ryan Plan, the party focused on slicing discretionary spending still more and enacting the part of the Ryan Plan that dealt with Medicaid. In the short term, this would not be politically costly as the people most likely to be on Medicaid vote less often than others. Most Americans seem to live under the delusion that Medicaid could not be in their future.

The House Republican Conference, which speaks for 176 members, said it would settle for $381 billion in cuts, $46 billion of which would come from discretionary spending. This would be in addition to the $38.5 billion that has already been accepted.

On May 10, Speaker John Boehner outlined in general terms what the Republicans would demand in return for extending the debt ceiling. He wanted “trillions” in cuts, but he did not say where the cuts would be. He ruled out any tax increases. This far exceeded what the Conference wanted and must be seen as an effort to appease his Tea Bagger members. He ruled out any tax increases.

Boehner did not mention the financial system near-meltdown or the great recession -- both products of Republican policies. He blamed the Obama stimulus for slow job growth and never bothered to refute the Congressional Budget Office finding that the stimulus prevented a much worse disaster.

He ignored a mountain of evidence -- some from the impartial Congressional Budget Office -- that Obama and the Democrats headed off a recession and promoted economic growth by at least 1% a quarter -- by the most conservative estimates. It is almost impossible to find a real economist who would support Boehner. His argument sells because so many understand it is about putting the president in his place, going after the so-called undeserving poor, and repudiating the dreaded liberals.

The final deal on raising the debt ceiling will probably occur in August.

It would appear that President Barack Obama has been maneuvered into a box when it comes to further negotiations with the Republicans. He has said too often that cutting the deficit is desirable, but he has also said he would not endanger the safety net. This leaves him with little room to maneuver. He should be repeatedly pointing out that cutting spending while the economy is weak risks plunging it back into another recession.

House Republicans made it clear they have not given up on Ryan's plan to privatize Medicare. More than likely, they are waiting until after they gain control of the Senate in 2012, when 23 Democratic seats are up. For the moment, Senate Republicans will avoid doing much with Medicare and will go for huge cuts in Medicaid. In the short run, that may not prevent them from gaining the four or five votes they will need to control the Senate in the election of 2012. In the longer run, more and more voters will come to realize that they and their families are seriously threatened by cuts to Medicaid.

The Democrats need to find a way to hang on until the time when the public comes to associate Republicans with painful cuts in Medicare and Medicaid. The best way to do that is to insist on other ways to cut spending and to demand some revenue increases. Unless they are successful here, they will have helped lock into the conventional wisdom the notion that almost all cuts must come from entitlements and out of the hides of the unlucky, poor, and marginalized.

They must dig in. This is worth risking reelection over.

[Don Swift is a retired history professor.]

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21 April 2011

Sherman DeBrosse : The Republican Bait and Switch


Bait and switch:
The Republican assault on Medicare


By Sherman DeBrosse / The Rag Blog / April 21, 2011

The Republicans used the election of 2010 to pull off an impressive bait-and-switch operation.

They campaigned against health care reform because it trimmed money from Medicare. It did trim the Medicare budget, but the Republicans falsely claimed it cut benefits. The public handed them the power to steer economic policy and they used control of the House of Representatives to launch a scheme to gradually defund and privatize Medicare.

They also promised to restore jobs and to introduce employment-producing legislation. President Barack Obama was too gentle to point out that they had done nothing about jobs. He did show the bait-and-switch attack on Medicare, and the Republicans instantly cried “foul,” claiming he was being partisan and inaccurate. As usual, they neglected to support their complaint with hard facts.

In the budget the House passed for 2012, Budget Chairman Paul A. Ryan mainly called for huge cuts in Medicare and Medicaid. The Ryan plan proposes dramatic cuts in federal Medicare, especially for people now under 55 years of age.

Estimates vary on how much will be cut in a decade, ranging from $4.3 trillion to $5.8 trillion. The lion's share of the cuts will come from Medicaid. Obama's proposed spending on transportation will be cut by 41%, and spending on education will be slashed by 36%. Energy spending will be reduced to zero, and veteran's will take a $19 billion hit. There will be a reduction in agricultural subsidies. There will be sharp cuts in low-income housing, Pell grants, and food stamps.

The Republican plan aims to destroy the health care reform plan by starving it of funds. There would be no cuts to defense spending beyond the $78 billion in savings over 10 years that Secretary Robert Gates has identified.

About two-thirds of the savings come out of the hides of low-income citizens. Ryan does this by making Medicaid into block grants, thus enabling the states to trim even more Medicaid services, and by giving future Medicare recipients, in 2022, subsidies to add to their own funds to purchase private insurance. The subsidies would go directly to insurance companies from whom they are buying health insurance with their own funds.

The Republican goal is to turn Medicare into something like the present Medicare Advantage, except that people would be paying a lot more for it. They refuse to acknowledge that the present Medicare Advantage costs American taxpayers 12% more than does Medicare.

At the outset, the individual would be paying over $6,000 out of pocket for coverage in just the first year. Within 10 years of the Ryan Budget's enactment, people covered by the new provision would be paying all of their Social Security to purchase private medical insurance.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that in 2030 the voucher would cover about a third of the cost of health insurance. Paul Ryan is not providing cost containment or any minimum of coverage. At the same time, he cuts taxes by a like amount for the wealthy, the near wealthy, corporations, and business.

In its first 10 years, the Ryan Plan cuts taxes for the wealthy and near wealthy as well as businesses and corporations by $4.3 trillion. Over 10 years it cuts spending by $100 billion, which does little to trim the deficit. A less discussed provision of the Ryan plan is the complete repeal of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act. This will make another meltdown of the financial system more likely and will put the taxpayer in line to again bail out institutions that are too big to fail.

Because it confers so much on the rich and business, the Ryan plan would not bring the budget into balance even after 20 years. It is a political marker designed to set the terms of the 2012 election. It ends the Obama health care plan, calls for gradual defunding of some entitlements, and preserves tax benefits for the wealthy and business.

Pundits praise Ryan as the Republicans' best economist. What he offers is not economics at all. He presents no framework or arguments that economists could recognize as being related to the discipline of economics. True, the Heritage Foundation cranked out a study to support his scheme, but that organization has become famous for generating boilerplate to support far-right schemes.

The fact is that Ryan is trying to enact the theories of Ayn Rand, a novelist/amateur philosopher, who offered a framework for society that is like Marxism turned on its head. Ryan has said, “The reason I got into public service, by and large, if I had to credit one thinker... it would be Ayn Rand.” He requires his staffers to study Rand's Nietzschian tracts.

In the words of Rand's protagonist, Jon Galt, "The man at the top of the intellectual pyramid contributes the most to all those below him," but receives little in return. "The man at the bottom who, left to himself, would starve in his hopeless ineptitude, contributes nothing to those above him, but receives the bonus of all of their brains.”

The idea is to direct more rewards to the creative few and to destroy the welfare state, which supposedly prevents people at the top from unleashing their creativity.

Ryan's plan is about reordering society, not about wiping out the deficit. This approach is very popular with political fundamentalists and the Tea Baggers because they are certain they are the creative few and are being held back because government is helping lesser people. Ryan is serving up a large dose of Social Darwinism at a time when such selfish and ugly sentiments are very popular.

Ryan offers retrograde social engineering, not debt reduction.

[Sherman DeBrosse is a retired history professor and a frequent contributor to The Rag Blog.]

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09 March 2011

Sherman DeBrosse : The Republicans' 'Cut and Grow' Show

Ludwig von Mises: "Cut and Grow" economics. Image from Picasa.

Taking the lead from von Mises:
The GOP's 'Cut and Grow' experiment


By Sherman DeBrosse / The Rag Blog / March 9, 2011

The Republicans talked endlessly about creating new jobs before the election of 2010. After their great victory, they started talking about austerity and deregulation and much less about jobs. The voters wanted to punish the Democrats for not working an economic miracle and for providing health care for over 35,000,000 people who needed it. They did not expect less emphasis on jobs, but that is what they are getting.

Some of their policies will increase the public debt, but Republican leaders and propagandists refuse to acknowledge this. The extension of the tax cut for the rich means more federal debt, and the Congressional Budget Office projects that repeal of health care reform would add $230 billion to the debt between 2012 and 2021. Recently, John Boehner showed a lack of concern when told that his budget cuts jobs. The fact is that it would cost hundreds of thousands of jobs and dramatically slow economic growth.


The “Cut and Grow” theory

The nation may have to endure an experiment with the Republicans “cut and grow” approach to economics. Republicans seem to think that by cutting government spending, investors in the private sector will regain confidence in the economy and begin to hire people and invest productive facilities in the United States. No one ever offers numbers to support this theory.

It seems that the “cut and grow” approach is based on the theories of Ludwig von Mises. Recently, Representative Ron Paul brought an expert on Von Mises before his subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve. Von Mises was a theorist and not a quantitative economist. No one needed to have a good knowledge of mathematics to get the drift of these ideas. His notions were all based on belief in an absolutely unregulated economy and a fear of socialism and inflation.

House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan seems to build his models on something similar to Von Mises' theories. The Washington Post called him the “GOP's leading intellectual in Congress.” His thought is based on Ayn Rand's novels, and he adheres to a very unusual and ahistorical view of the New Deal. Ryan insists that FDR's policies increased unemployment. He insists that the road to recovery begins with large cuts in spending.

If there is any empirical data to support this economic theory, no one has bothered to make it public.

Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, recently warned that the $61 billion in spending cuts suggested by the House Republicans will increase unemployment by as much as 700,000. The Economic Policy Institute placed the figure at 800,000. It would cut the GDP by .5% in 2011.

Goldman-Sachs economists are suggesting that dramatic federal budget cuts this year could derail the fragile recovery we seem to be experiencing. Their estimate of damage to the GDP was much higher than Zandi's. Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, a Republican appointee, has sounded the same warning.

Majority Leader Eric Cantor dismissed Zandi's warning, noting that Zandi had backed the “Obama -Reid- Pelosi” stimulus which guaranteed that unemployment would not rise above 8%. Clearly Obama did not understand how serious the recession was, so he it is fair to note the President promised too much.

But Cantor offered no economic arguments -- only three clever political ones: (1) Obama misspoke when he came up with the 8.5 figure, (2) he associated the stimulus with three demonized people, and (3) Cantor suggested that the only jobs that would be lost were political ones. They don't count because those positions are burdens to taxpayers. Speaker John Boehner had the same thing to say about the lost jobs.


Cut and grow could contract the economy

Even many conservative economists contradict the “cut and grow” theory saying there is no reason to create jobs in the United States when labor is so cheap in the developing world. Abroad, there is evidence that completely contradicts the theory. Polls in the United Kingdom show that British business's confidence in their economy dropped sharply when the new Conservative-dominated coalition government unveiled its austerity budget.

According to the Republican theory, the new jobs should be coming soon now that business is reassured with Republicans in the driver's seat. They have absolute control of the House, an absolute veto in the Senate, and a president, seriously chastened by angry voters, who seems very anxious to come more than half-way to please the masters of Capitol Hill.

The same regulatory environment exists now as prevailed under George W. Bush, and the Democrats are now in no position to do more regulating. Even they are offering to regulate less. But, in the Bush years of 2002 to 2008, multinationals should have been happy. The GOP was in power and the regulatory environment was the same as now. Yet their employment abroad increased 22.6% and at home went up 4.5%.

The problem with the proposed $61 billion in cuts can be explained in terms of the monetary theory of Milton Friedman, a leading Republican economist. Friedman's views have a way of always taking much better care of the people on top than the rest of us, but at least he worked with numbers and realities.

He disliked Von Mise, calling him intolerant and nasty. Our economy would be in a lot less danger if the Republicans, who now set policy, were guided by Friedman rather than Von Mises. Using historical records, Friedman, founder of the so-called Chicago School, demonstrated that dramatic contractions of the amount of money in circulation bring about substantial economic disruptions in the form of more unemployment and lower GDP.

In everyday terms, cutting too much from the budget is like hitting the power breaks while you are traveling at a good clip through several feet of water.

For two years, federal stimulus money covered some $300 billion in losses in revenue at the state level. Now all that stimulus money has dried up, and the states will be making dramatic cuts in spending. The $800 billion in stimulus was intended to fill a $2.5 trillion hole in the economy. Now it has ended, and much of the hole remains.

The Federal Reserve attempted to make up for this contraction through its quantitative easing program, putting $600 billion into circulation. But that outflow of money ends near the end of the year. The fear is that the current budget cuts at the state level plus anticipated federal cuts could administer too great a jolt to the economy.


Trying to understand Republican intentions

There is no way of knowing exactly how much the Republican leaders know about economics or what their intentions are. Clearly, they want to forestall any tax increases for their main constituents, the wealthy. Beyond that, we can only speculate. It is as though they never look at serious economic data.

The Congressional Budget Office says that the Obama administration saved between 2,600,000 and 3,3000,000 jobs. The big bank ratings firms have said the same. Most economists agree that Obama's policies saved us from a depression. Republican leaders and spokesmen almost uniformly ignore all that. Mary Matalin did concede that Obama saved about 50,000 jobs, but those belonged to state employees.

After noting Republican Representative Darrell Issa's reaction to a bit of information about the nitty gritty of banking, it struck this writer that the Republicans may not be deliberately dishonest in what they say about economics. They could be simply blinded by ideology and bitter partisanship.

As chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government, Issa opened hearings on how TARP had been administered. He was clearly looking for proof of dishonesty or ineptitude on the part of the Obama administration. Ok, we expected this because he has insisted that Obama was one of our most corrupt presidents.

Some witnesses explained to him that the Frank-Dodd Act was really too weak and that the big banks have grown much larger. There is the danger of another collapse which would make necessary another bailout. Issa took all that in and then said that the big banks should start breaking themselves up. Someone open to facts might have said that Congress should study strengthening Frank-Dodd.

Issa's response demonstrated he could only process information to a limited degree before ideology took over. Men like Issa learned from Newt Gingrich that whatever Democrats say must be wrong. It was an outlook that created bitter partisan warriors and blinkered outlooks.


Some think the GOP set out to damage the economy
so they would benefit politically

For anyone who has taken more than a few economics courses, it is very difficult to believe that the Republicans seriously believe that their economic policies will help the country. As many knowledgeable writers have noted, their approach is more likely to increase unemployment and risks another recession.

That is why some think the GOP is out to damage the recovery, because the voters would then punish Barack Obama in 2012, just as they punished the Democrats when they were unable to work economic miracles in less than two years.

Barack Obama told a Racine, Wisconsin town-hall meeting, “Before I was even inaugurated, there were leaders on the other side of the aisle who... made the calculation that if Obama fails, they win.”

Jim DeMint and Mitch McConnell have repeatedly said as much. Yet Obama, from the beginning, offered centrist compromises that have almost always been ignored.

Dana Milbank, in an opinion piece, recently reported the obvious: the GOP will benefit in 2012 if the economy slips a little more. He made it clear the GOP leaders must know this and that their present economic plans could be designed to insure that they profit from continued hard times.

Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman has written that “Republicans want the economy to stay weak as long as there's a Democrat in the White House.” Steve Benen said the same thing in a piece called “None Dare Call It Sabotage?” Republican columnist Michel Gerson picked the weakest part of the Benen column, his criticism of Republican opposition to the Fed's “quantitative easing” to claim that the whole argument that the GOP wants joblessness to continue is wrong. After all, Gerson argued, who can honestly claim that “Republicans... hate the president more than they love the country.”

The simple fact is that this is exactly what happened. The stimulus was far less than it should have been. Republicans had enough bargaining power to force the Democratic leadership to hold down the size of the stimulus and load it with tax cuts. It is a wonder the stimulus worked as well as it did.

Whether the Republicans worked to keep unemployment high cannot be resolved, but high unemployment seems to benefit them.


The battle on the debt limit

John Boehner and other Republican leaders have been hinting that they might expect steps to cut entitlement as the price for avoiding a government shutdown. Shutting down the government in 1995 cost the Republicans dearly, but, a poll for The Hill shows that this time more people would blame the Democrats than the Republicans.

Forty-seven percent would blame both parties, and 27 % would blame the Democrats, with 23% faulting the Republicans. The change from a decade and a half ago can be attributed to the nation's rightward drift and superior Republican messaging.

There was much pressure from Republican politicians and their pundits for Obama to take the lead -- and much of the blame -- in entitlements reform, but he did not take the bait. Whether the Republicans decide to seize this opportunity to go after entitlements will depend upon how anxious their new Congressmen are to press this agenda. The seasoned Republican leaders may think they can work more dramatic cuts in entitlements if they wait until 2013 when they hope to have the White House.

[Sherman DeBrosse is a retired history professor and a frequent contributor to The Rag Blog.]

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